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Swing Vote deals with the story of an election set somewhere in the near future where Bud Johnson (Kevin Costner), a lovable loser from Texico, New Mexico who is coasting through life and hasn't a single political thought in his head, is thrust into an improbable dilemma. In response, he is coaxed by his 12-year-old daughter Molly (Madeline Carroll) to take more of a serious approach to life. Molly runs the household and sees an opportunity on election day to energize her father. The election is a "dead heat" with the sole deciding ballot in the hands of a mystified Bud, who is being wooed by candidates from both sides, the incumbent Republican Andrew Carington Boone (Kelsey Grammer) and the opposing Democrat (whose political office is never given), Donald Greenleaf (Dennis Hopper). Neither of the candidates' Vice Presidential selections is mentioned.

Bud's actual opinions (or lack thereof) are misinterpreted by the media, causing the candidates to flip-flop on several positions (The Democrats take a pro-life and anti-immigration stand, while the Republicans take a pro-environmental and pro gay marriage stand). In the end, Bud chooses to hold a final debate the day before he is set to recast his ballot. In a written speech, he confesses that he knows little to nothing about politics, or for that matter, life, and decides to ask questions from people in the mail. The movie ends with Bud casting his vote, though it is never revealed for whom he voted.